Economy, finances, management: topical issues of science and practical activity

SCIENTIFIC JOURNALS OF VINNITSA NATIONAL AGRARIAN UNIVERSITY

Issue №: 1 (63)

Published: 2023.05.12

DOI: 10.37128/2411-4413-2023-1

Description:
The journal deals with the issues of efficiency of functioning of the national economics and organizational forms of management of the national economy. Attention is paid to the problems of marketing, management and efficiency of production and economic activity of agrarian enterprises. The issues of public administration and administration, accounting and taxation, banking and insurance, forecasting and modeling of economic processes, foreign economic activity, commodity flows of economic entities and their infrastructure support.

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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AS A PREDICTOR OF THE BIRTH RATE IN UKRAINE

DOI: 10.37128/2411-4413-2023-1-6

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SHEVCHUK Oleksandr – Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Mathematics, Physics and Computer Technologies, Vinnytsia National Agrarian University (21008, Vinnytsia, 3, Soniachna Str., e-mail: shevchuk177@gmail.com).

Annotation

The paper conducts an information-analytical study of correlations between the fertility rate in Ukraine and the level of the gross domestic product (hereinafter referred to as – GDP), expressed in US dollars, per person of the population. Preliminary calculations based on the official statistical data for 1990-2021 indicated the absence (R² = 0.0089) of both linear and non-linear regression relationships between the studied indicators. However, a more detailed analysis of the correlation field made it possible to trace three time intervals with a fairly close linear relationship between the birth rate in Ukraine and the general state of the national economy. The combined regression model of the birth rate built as a result of such an analysis turned out to be adequate, and all its parameters were statistically significant at the confidence level of p = 0.95.At the same time, similar statistical estimates of the unknown parameters of the model were also obtained when investigating the presence of inertia in the reactions of the values of the endogenous variable, taking into account a lag delay of one year.

The change in the specification of the model, as a result of the introduction to consideration of an additional indicator of the global financial crisis, led to an improvement in its correlation indicators and interpolation accuracy, both in the presence of a lag shift (R_∆=1=0.960, MAPE_∆=1 = 3.89%), and in its absence (R_∆=0=0.982, MAPE_∆=0 = 2.68%).

According to estimates made on the basis of a combined fertility model, it was established that before the beginning of the military aggression of the russian federation in 2014, the birth rate in the country had a direct linear relationship with the level of GDP, expressed in US dollars, per person of the population. However, the regression coefficient observed during the economic crisis of 1990-1999 was significantly higher than the corresponding indicator calculated for the economic recovery period of 2000-2014. That is, the process of reducing the birth rate, which was provoked by the economic crisis, turned out to be more significant than the process of its recovery during the economic growth of the country.

On the other hand, for the period of the military aggression of the russian federation, a feedback relationship between these indicators becomes characteristic, namely, a decrease in the birth rate is accompanied by an increase in the level of the country’s GDP.

Keywords: birth rate, gross domestic product, series of dynamics, regression equation, correlation coefficient, combined regression model.

List of references

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About the journal

Topics of the journal:

С1 Economics and International Economic Relations (by specialization)

D1 Accounting and Taxation

D2 Finance, Banking, Insurance and Stock Market

D3 Management

D4 Public Management and Administration

D5 Marketing

D7 Trade

J3 Tourism and Recreation

Keywords: economics , international economic relations , accounting , taxation , finance , banking , insurance , stock market , management , public management and administration , marketing , trade , tourism and recreation

Key information:

ISSN (print): 2411-4413

DOI: 10.37128

All-Ukrainian scientific and production journal “Economics, finance, management: topical issues of science and practical activity” is a peer-reviewed open-access journal that publishes original research, theoretical articles and reviews on a wide range of economic and business issues. The articles, which have scientific and scientific-practical significance, highlight theoretical and methodological aspects of the development of agrarian sector of economy and related industries, the results of fundamental and applied research.

The purpose of the journal is to highlight the results of fundamental and applied research in the field of economic sciences, aimed at developing modern approaches to managing economic processes, financial support for enterprise activities and increasing the efficiency of economic systems. The publication is focused on creating a scientific environment for the exchange of research results between scientists, higher education students and practitioners in economic sphere, as well as on the dissemination of modern scientific and methodological approaches to solving current economic and management problems. The journal contributes to the development of the research in the field of enterprise economics, finance, accounting, auditing, management, marketing, entrepreneurship, trade, tourism and recreation, public management and administration, economic development and international economic relations, which meets the modern needs of the socio-economic development of the state.

The journal’s objectives are:

• publishing the results of fundamental and applied research in the fields of economics, international economic relations, finance, management, public administration, accounting, marketing, tourism and recreation, and entrepreneurship;

• promoting the development of modern methods of managing enterprises and organizations, increasing the efficiency of using financial and material resources;

• supporting the research aimed at improving the economic mechanisms of enterprise functioning, developing innovative activity, and increasing the competitiveness of economic structures;

• ensuring the scientific exchange of research results between higher education institutions, scientific institutions, and business entities;

• developing methods of economic analysis, forecasting, and modeling of socio-economic processes;

• disseminating of modern approaches to financial management, accounting, taxation, and control of economic activity;

• promoting the development of interdisciplinary research related to the economic support of the development of agrarian sector of economy and rural areas;

• integration of scientific research results into the international scientific space and increasing the level of scientific communication.

Publisher: Vinnytsia National Agrarian University

Link to the journal on the publisher’s website: ”Economics, finance, management: topical issues of science and practical activity”

Frequency of issue: 4 times a year.

Language of publication: Ukrainian, English.

Editor-in-Chief: Inna Honcharuk

State registration: Decision of the National Council of Ukraine on Television and Radio Broadcasting No. 1337 and No. 1178. Media identifier – R30-05171. Publisher registration number (EDRPOU) 00497236.

Publisher’s ROR: https://ror.org/05m3ysc06 Publisher’s DOI prefix: 10.37128 ISSN (print): 2411-4413

Publisher DOI prefix: 10.37128 ISSN (print): 2411-4413

The scientific journal is included in category "B" of the List of scientific professional publications of Ukraine, in which the results of dissertations for the degree of Doctor and Candidate of Sciences in the specialties C1 (051) - Economics, D1 (071) - Accounting and Taxation, D2 (072) – Finance, Banking, Insurance and Stock Market, D3 (073) – Management, D5 (075) – Marketing, D7 (076) – Entrepreneurship and Trade, (241) – Hotel and Restaurant Business, D4 (281) – Public Management and Administration (Order of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine dated March 17, 2020 №409)

History of journal:

History of the journal:

Founded in 1997 under the name ”Bulletin of Vinnytsia State Agricultural Institute”. In 2010-2014 it was published under the name “Collection of Scientific Papers of Vinnytsia National Agrarian University”. Since 2015 “Economics, finance, management: current issues of science and practical activity” (Certificate of State Registration of Mass Media No. 21154-10954 PR dated 12/31/2014).